Nacionales (ingles) archivos - Page 13 of 32

Nacionales (ingles)

The war on inflation means a shooting in its own foot

The government declared war on inflation with the same instruments it has been using so far. It continues to underestimate the impact of excess money printing on prices. Nevertheless, the most contradictory thing is that the government itself needs higher inflation to reduce public spending in real terms. (more…)

Even if the IMF forgive the debt, Argentina would still be in crisis

The Argentine crisis is caused by the public sector’s propensity to mismanage and overspend its revenues. This originates more in the State’s disorder than in exogenous factors. The war in Ukraine is now emerging as a new excuse to go on postponing a comprehensive reorganization of the State. (more…)

The IMF targets cannot be met

The agreement with the IMF sets deficit and monetary targets expressed in nominal pesos. Moreover, policies making compliance unlikely are presented. The IMF staff will limit itself to explicit the non-compliance. The IMF Board of Directors will have to give “pardons” for the agreement not to collapse. (more…)

Argentina is vulnerable to its own policies not to Ukraine

The tragedy in Ukraine will have a global economic impact. In principle, Argentina is not so vulnerable because it exports much more cereals and soybeans than it imports gas. But if it keeps utility tariffs frozen, the increase in gas imports will add another destabilizing factor. (more…)

Double is spent on state – own companies than in the AUH

A critical point in the negotiations with the IMF is the reduction of economic subsidies. To this end, it is crucial to update utility rates and eliminate assistance to state-owned companies. In this context, proposing the creation of a state-own food company is extremely contradictory. (more…)

The Nation should not be in charge of water services in AMBA

Together with electricity distribution and urban transport, water and sanitation is another public service in AMBA that the federal government should stop administering. The service should be transferred to CABA and Buenos Aires province so that they manage the service as in the rest of the country. (more…)

The federal government should not be in charge of AMBA´s utilities

The fiscal deficit is highly sensitive to economic subsidies. For this reason, it is difficult to comply with the path agreed with the IMF without revising them. This requires not only the establishment of a new tariff regime but also an orderly reorganization of how state services are organized. (more…)

The new agreement with the IMF will also fail

Progress towards a new agreement with the IMF was announced. Once again, a gradualist strategy is chosen, which assumes that the fiscal deficit will be reduced because revenues will increase more than expenditures thanks to economic growth. It is the same inconsistency that led to the failure of the previous agreement. (more…)

In Argentina having fiscal deficits is a “State Policy”

The political “fracture” (la grieta) is blamed for the lack of consensus to establish “State policies” to promote development. However, spending in excess of income is a “State policy” in itself which enjoys broad consensus among the political parties. This is one of the main factors that explain Argentina’s decline. (more…)

Central Bank debt has doubled

The fiscal deficit of the national public sector is in the order of 5% of GDP. Most of it was financed with monetary printing which, since it is not entirely accepted by the public, had to be absorbed with Leliqs and repros. This generates an accelerated and unsustainable increase in the Central Bank’s debt. (more…)